The first set of data available in the National Packaging Waste Database suggests most obligations have reduced compared to the 2012 compliance period.
Although this might cause some optimism, difficulties in the market such as restrictions on exports to China could still mean a tough year ahead in terms of meeting compliance.
SCM scrap-ex environmental markets manager Joe Savage said: “Firstly plastics, requirements have inevitably increased due to a 5 per cent hike in target. While some forecasts suggested something in the order of 700,000 tonnes would be needed, we now know that the provisional obligation is 683,000 tonnes.
“Taking carry over PRNs and the first quarter performance into account, it’s still finely balanced on the strength of published figures for the year ahead. However, the current ‘Green Fence’ halting exports into China is expected to have an impact on the Q2 data set for release in July.
“Glass obligations have dropped – again as widely expected. However, following a very poor first quarter there will still be concerns, especially given the added complication of shuffling remelt and aggregates into purchasing requirements. Further improvement in the following quarter’s recycling will still be needed to hit the target for the year. This should certainly remind buyers of a need to cover obligations in a diligent manner.
“Steel has reduced, and with a strong Q1 performance already under its belt the current position looks healthy for the remainder of the year.
“Similarly paper, wood and general obligations have all fallen and shouldn’t pose many significant issues for the year, although continually falling wood recycling performance could be something worth watching yet.
“One thing to note is that these are only the first obligations for the year, and with subsequent new registrants and producer resubmissions these will change quite regularly until the close of the year.”